RE/MAX Canada released it’s comprehensive look at markets across Canada today, giving consumers a glimpse of where the Canadian housing market might be going in the next 12 months.  What does it mean for Edmonton?  Is it good news or bad news?  Doom and gloom or wine and roses?  Well, if we want to stick with the cliches, let’s use “steady as she goes!”

The forecast report looked at two real estate statistics – Average overall residential sale price (single family home and condo) and total residential unit sales – the two most common indicators of housing health.  The year over year comparison shows that 2011 was slightly off from 2010, down 1% from $328,803 to $326,000 while transactions were up 2.7% (16,850 vs 16,403) from 2010.  Looking forward, the report sees both sales and price as being flat, with little or no change to either.

What does that really mean for the consumer and why is steady as she goes not that bad of a thing?  Taking a longer look (a 5 year outlook) we see that the Edmonton market has recovered well from the housing downturn experienced in 2008/09, while we haven’t gotten back to the prices or activity of 2006/07, we are seeing that real estate activity is relatively robust –  it is better to think of the current environment as the new normal rather than a downturn.  Pre-boom (before 2006) it was common to see very small to negligible changes in these two areas, Edmonton was a much more consistent market when compared to its sister to the south Calgary which again appears to be on a bit of a roller coaster of activity again.  Edmonton’s prices, when compared to other major cities (Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary) are still relatively affordable and when compared to other cities with lower average prices (Montreal, Quebec City, Hamilton) has one key bonus – it has a growing job market!  Over 2011, Edmonton saw the largest increase in job creation in the country and has experienced positive migration again this year.   Interest rates continue to remain low and there doesn’t seem to be rush to bump them higher.  These facts mean that the Edmonton housing market appeals to two different ends of the market – the investor looking for a good return on investment AND families looking for a home of their own.

It would appear that the Edmonton market could see significant upswing based on these factors, yet, there are some overburdening shadows that are keeping a lid on some of this for now.  Exterior market forces such as the overall concerns of the global economy and a lot of the bad news still filtering in through Alberta’s economic shield continues to keep many consumers on the sidelines with a “wait and see” approach to housing decisions.  This is a principle reason that 2012 will not see much statistical change.  Once this caution and fear begins to disapate then we are most likely to see activity to ramp up in the Edmonton area and prices begin to re-adjust once more.

Slow and Steady, it doesn’t make headlines but it does get you where you need to in the end!